![]() Taking this step may seem extreme, but “Iran could convince itself that it could do this,” Goldenberg, now at the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington, told me.Īt that point, it’d be nearly impossible for the Trump administration not to respond in kind. After all, Iran bombed US Marine barracks in Lebanon in 1983 and, according to the Pentagon, Iranian-backed fighters killed more than 600 US troops during the Iraq War. That last option is particularly likely, experts say. Or Iranian-linked proxies could target and murder American troops and diplomats in Iraq. Israel could kill an Iranian nuclear scientist, leading Iran to strike back and drawing the US into the spat, especially if Tehran responds forcefully. The country’s skillful hackers could launch a major cyberattack on regional allies like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. Iranian forces could bomb an American oil tanker traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the global energy trade aggressively patrolled by Tehran’s forces, causing loss of life or a catastrophic oil spill. But with few options to compel the Trump administration to change course, Iranian leaders may choose a more violent tactic to make their point, especially after Soleimani’s death. US-imposed sanctions have tanked Iran’s economy, and Tehran desperately wants them lifted. “This would be a violent convulsion similar to chaos of the Arab Spring inflicted on the region for years,” said Ilan Goldenberg, the Defense Department’s Iran team chief from 2009 to 2012, with the potential for it to get “so much worse than Iraq.” How the US-Iran war starts The bottom line: It would be hell on earth. So to understand just how bad the situation could get, I asked eight current and former White House, Pentagon, and intelligence officials, as well as Middle East experts, last July about how a war between the US and Iran might play out. Which means US-Iran relations teeter on a knife edge, and it won’t take much more to knock them off. The great nation of Iran will take revenge for this heinous crime.- Hassan Rouhani January 3, 2020 The flag of General Soleimani in defense of the country's territorial integrity and the fight against terrorism and extremism in the region will be raised, and the path of resistance to US excesses will continue. “The great nation of Iran will take revenge for this heinous crime,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani tweeted Friday morning. But the possibility of war breaking out anyway shouldn’t be discounted, especially now that Iran’s leadership has sworn to avenge Soleimani. Importantly, experts note that neither country wants a full-blown conflict, with President Donald Trump saying he prefers “peace” when it comes to Iran. ![]() ![]() That led Secretary of Defense Mark Esper to tell reporters on Thursday that “if we get word of attacks, we will take pre-emptive action as well to protect American forces, protect American lives,” adding “the game has changed.” The US killed Soleimani hours after that statement, underscoring that change. In protest, the militia - Ketaib Hezbollah - organized a rally outside the US embassy in Baghdad where some got inside the compound and set parts of it ablaze. An Iranian-backed militia killed an American contractor while wounding others in rocket attacks, leading the Trump administration to order retaliatory strikes on five targets in Iraq and Syria that killed 25 of the militia’s fighters. The crisis has become more acute over the past week. The US imposed crushing sanctions on Iran’s economy over its support for terrorism and its growing missile program, among other things, after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal last year Iran has fought back by violating parts of the nuclear agreement, bombing oil tankers, and downing an American military drone. Washington and Tehran have remained locked in a months-long standoff that only continues to escalate. ![]() It’s partly why the Eurasia Group, a prominent international consulting firm, now puts the chance of “a limited or major military confrontation” at 40 percent.īut the seeds of conflict weren’t planted with Thursday’s airstrikes alone. Iran has every incentive to retaliate, experts says, using its proxies to target US commercial interests in the Middle East, American allies, or even American troops and diplomats hunkered down in regional bases and embassies. ![]() Qassem Soleimani, who led Iranian covert operations and intelligence and was one of the country’s most senior leaders, brought Washington and Tehran closer to fighting that war. Welcome to the US-Iran war, which has the potential to be one of the worst conflicts in history. And thousands - perhaps hundreds of thousands - killed in a conflict that would dwarf the war in Iraq. Nearly untraceable, ruthless proxies spreading chaos on multiple continents. ![]()
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